Just 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
