A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
